> Web3, DeFi & Prediction Markets

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planted May 6, 2026tended May 6, 2026
#moc#web3#defi#prediction-markets#ethereum#base#aptos#rootstock#polymarket

Web3, DeFi & Prediction Markets

A map of the on-chain work in this garden β€” what I've shipped, what I've researched, and the through-lines tying them together.

The pattern that keeps showing up: own the analysis, don't proxy. Whether it's risk scanning, market analysis, or settlement, the consistent move is to do the on-chain queries directly instead of wrapping someone else's API.

What I'm Building

  • Rug Scanner β€” On-chain token risk-analysis API. Pay-per-scan via x402 (USDC on Base). Live at rug-scanner-production.up.railway.app. Own analysis β€” no third-party risk APIs.
  • SatsPilot β€” WhatsApp DCA bot on Rootstock. Zero-slippage DOC β†’ RBTC via Money on Chain, idle yield via Tropykus. Vendimia hackathon.
  • Aptos Options Protocol β€” European-style cash-settled BTC/ETH options on Aptos. Move + Pyth + on-chain Black-Scholes.
  • polycli β€” Swiss-army Rust CLI for Polymarket: market discovery, whale monitoring, address investigation, arbitrage detection.

Research

  • x402 Implementation Guide β€” Production build journal for an x402 pay-per-call API. Hono + Coinbase CDP facilitator + EIP-3009. Specific package versions, debugging playbook, hardening patterns. Pairs with Rug Scanner.
  • x402 Competitive Landscape β€” Live Services Analysis β€” Scrape of the x402 ecosystem (~230 services across Bazaar + ecosystem + the402.ai). Where the gaps are, where the slop is, what to build.
  • Polymarket CLOB Deep Dive β€” Technical reference for Polymarket's Central Limit Order Book β€” unified book, neg-risk vs standard markets, endpoint surface, py-clob-client quirks, redemption mechanics. Pairs with polycli.
  • LS-LMSR Deep Dive β€” The math behind prediction-market AMMs. Hanson's LMSR + Othman & Sandholm's liquidity-sensitive extension. Precog v7 implementation, edge cases, bot-strategy implications.

Field Notes

  • Bayrob Cybercrime Investigation β€” How a Romanian cybercrime gang ran a 500K-node botnet for 12 years with near-perfect OPSEC, and the small mistakes that finally caught them. Adjacent to web3 by way of the OPSEC + crypto-wallet-draining angle of modern threats.

Cross-domain through-lines

  • Pay-per-call infrastructure (x402). Rug Scanner is the live answer; the x402 Implementation Guide is the build journal; the Competitive Landscape is the market thesis. The pattern transfers cleanly to any defensive-tool API I'd ship next.
  • LATAM-first interfaces. SatsPilot's WhatsApp-only flow is a deliberate bet that the next wave of crypto users in Latin America won't go through MetaMask onboarding. The interface, not the protocol, is the moat.
  • Defensive tooling > yield maximization. Rug Scanner, the security thread of Bayrob Cybercrime Investigation, and the "own the analysis" stance across polycli are all variants of the same thesis: in a market full of "10x your tokens" agents, the trustworthy pay-per-call API is the one that helps you not lose money.

External resources